The Cold, Hard Maths of Story Submissions
November 3, 2026
A recent submission to a publication (that shall remain nameless) revealed that they cap the number of story submissions and close submissions thereafter. It revealed the truth of how likely a submission is to get accepted: less than 5%. It's a common rate for many lesser-known genre publications. For popular—say, literary—magazines that drops to less than 1% (according to The Authors Guild), and that’s assuming they accept unsolicited pieces at all.
Publication by a commercial outlet is important, not just for the money, but perhaps more importantly for a budding writer it says that a commercial editor considers your work publishable and good. That is a necessary shot in the arm at the start of your writing journey. Rejection is part of the trade and can be discouraging, but look at the maths and enter into the submission process with a sober awareness of what it takes to achieve that published credit.
There are two ways to increase the acceptance odds in your favour: submit more things, and submit to more places. Let’s assume an (average) acceptance rate of 3% per story, per publication. If you submit a story to 20 magazines, your chances rise to about 50%. If you submit 5 stories to 20, your chances of acceptance rise to 95%.
So by the time you’ve written and submitted a dozen short stories, you should have a publishing credit under your belt!
Of course, there are some important caveats underpinning the figures above.
- Stories should be publishable. Make every effort to ensure there are no problems with the story that would reduce its chance of publication.
- Selected publications should be appropriate. Check the magazine’s submission requirements and make sure you submit only stories that is aligned with them, otherwise your probability on that submission will be 0.
The multiple-story submission approach is particularly advantageous because even if a story is publishable, suited to the publication, and perhaps even remarkable, editors’ tastes vary. Trying a story that’s a bit different at another time will improve your chances. Always be writing a new story while submitting the previous one.
Note which publications allow simultaneous submissions. You can speed up your chances by submitting to all of them first. After the final simultaneous rejection has come through start submitting to the exclusive submission publications on your list.
If you get to 20 stories submitted to 20 magazines—that’s 400 attempts at publication, with nothing accepted, then it’s time to ask yourself some hard questions about your writing.
Better yet, ask yourself those questions before you write the first story!
That’s just short fiction. Novels? That’s a different story.
Bonne Chance!